article 20100914 contributed by jiyoung park

Talk of succession in North Korea
Third Kim lucky?
An heir-raising event in Pyongyang
Sep 9th 2010 | Seoul

DELEGATES from across North Korea gathered in Pyongyang for a special
conference—probably the most significant official meeting held by the
Stalinist state in 30 years. Posters were said to have appeared around
the capital hailing the occasion as "shining forever in the history of
our party and country". South Korean officials suggested that tanks
and missiles had been spied in the city, preparing for a giant
military parade to mark the occasion.

Such conferences are rare: only two others have been held since the
country was created after the second world war, and this is the first
convened by Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader. In an extremely
centralised country, where the armed forces and the Communist party
hold sway, the Dear Leader had previously deemed such a conference
unnecessary (though he has allowed slightly more showy party
congresses to take place). So the fact that he has called one, shortly
after making two trips to the country's one big ally, China, is taken
by most observers to indicate that political change is under way.

Most obvious is the possibility that the meeting may arrange for a
change of leadership. The previous two such conferences, held in 1958
and 1966, saw the election (in Soviet style) of many senior officials
in the wake of purges against "anti-party enemies". This one may serve
to anoint Kim Jong Il's youngest son, Kim Jong Un, as his heir
apparent.

If so, the most likely scenario will be for the dictator-in-waiting, a
Swiss-educated, untested man still in his 20s, to get an important
post on the central committee of the Korean Workers' Party. A huge
propaganda exercise is also expected: Open Radio for North Korea, a
short-wave radio station, reports that 10m portraits of the young man
have been ordered, for distribution after the conference.

Kim Jong Il was similarly elevated in and after the 1980 party
congress. Over the next 14 years leading to the death of his father,
Kim Il Sung (the Great Leader), he gradually assumed more
responsibility, and became the de facto ruler while Kim père was still
alive.

His own successor may have less time to settle into the family job.
The elder Kim is thought to be in poor health, so the new leader would
need to gain experience and generate loyalty quickly to avoid being
deposed. And the younger Kim, unlike his father in 1980, has little
experience, if any, in political or military affairs. His authority,
for the moment, seems to derive entirely from being his father's
favourite.

Much will depend on the position of Chang Sung Taek, Kim Jong Il's
brother-in-law and the second most powerful man in the country. He is
considered one of the architects of the succession, and Kim Jong Un
would rely on his support to ensure the compliance of the party and
the armed forces. It would help, too, if China is seen to be
sympathetic. Even so, there is no certainty that a factionalised elite
would accept rule by the 27-year-old basketball fan with his uncle
acting as regent.

In fact there is little certainty whatsoever. Even if the delegates do
address the possible elevation of Kim Jong Un, analysts argue that the
conference may need to produce even more than that. With North Korea's
economy in dire straits and the country increasingly dependent on
China, reform, some believe, may be on the cards. Although nobody
expects a Deng Xiaoping-style liberalisation, a slow opening up, at
least towards China, is a possibility. A younger man may be the one to
attempt that.

Asia